What is the Men's Underwear Index?

Men defer boring purchases when worried about money. When underwear sales dip, consumer confidence has already cracked — Alan Greenspan cited this as a leading indicator of economic sentiment.

What is the Cardboard Box Index?

Every shipment needs a box. Cardboard box production is a surprisingly clean leading indicator for real economic activity, often moving a quarter before GDP catches up.

What is the Big Mac Index?

The Economist invented the Big Mac Index in 1986 as a lighthearted measure of purchasing power parity. Same burger, same process everywhere — the price tells you exactly how far your dollar goes relative to other currencies.

What is the Temp Staffing Index?

Employers hire temporary workers before committing to permanent staff — and cut them first when conditions worsen. The Temp Staffing Index consistently leads total payroll employment by 2–3 months, making it one of the cleanest early warning signals in the labor market.

What is the Lipstick Index?

Estée Lauder's Leonard Lauder noticed lipstick sales jumped as the 2001 recession hit. The theory: when consumers cut big luxuries, they substitute small affordable ones. Lipstick sales rising in a downturn has held up across multiple recessions as a reliable consumer sentiment signal.

What is the Used Car Price Index?

Used car prices are hyper-sensitive to credit conditions and supply chain shocks. In 2021, used vehicle prices alone were responsible for roughly a third of U.S. CPI inflation — a single line item moving the headline number economists use to set monetary policy.

What are leading economic indicators?

Leading economic indicators are data points that tend to change before the broader economy shifts. Unlike GDP — which is reported months after the fact and revised repeatedly — leading indicators like temp staffing, cardboard box shipments, and credit card delinquency rates give an early read on where the economy is heading.

Why are alternative economic indicators more accurate than GDP?

Official GDP figures are released with a significant lag, revised multiple times, and subject to methodological smoothing. Alternative indicators like temp staffing employment, cardboard box shipments, and Big Mac prices update faster, are harder to manipulate, and reflect what real people are actually doing with their money.

Are we in a recession right now?

GDPv2's real-time recession probability score aggregates leading alternative indicators — temp staffing, credit card delinquency, cardboard box shipments, and consumer sentiment — into a 0–100 score updated daily. Official GDP lags by months. Alternative indicators lead by quarters. The dashboard shows the current score and the signals driving it.

What is recession probability and how is it measured?

Recession probability is an estimate of the likelihood that the U.S. economy is in or entering a recession, based on leading indicators. GDPv2 calculates it by weighting temp staffing trends, credit card delinquency rates, cardboard box production, and S&P 500 direction — all of which historically lead official recession declarations by one to three quarters.

Are we in a recession right now?

GDPv2's real-time recession probability score provides a current read based on leading alternative indicators — temp staffing, credit card delinquency, cardboard box shipments, and the Men's Underwear Index. Official NBER recession declarations lag by 6–18 months. GDPv2's score updates daily using data that historically leads those declarations by one to three quarters. Check the live score at gdpv2.com.

What is the GDPv2 recession probability score?

The GDPv2 recession probability score is a 0–100 composite index that blends traditional indicators (unemployment, S&P 500, temp staffing, consumer sentiment, credit card delinquency) with alternative leading indicators (cardboard box shipments, Big Mac Index, Men's Underwear Index). Scores above 60 indicate elevated recession risk. The score updates daily and is designed to signal stress before official GDP figures confirm it.

← GDPv2

Alternative Economic Indicator

Retail Sales

What people actually spent — before economists get to revise it.

Current Value

N/A

Trend

↑ N/A

First Hard Number After the Month Closes

The Census Bureau surveys roughly 5,000 retailers and releases total sales across 13 categories around the 15th of the following month. That timing matters. GDP is quarterly and arrives late. Retail sales arrive fast — before most other hard data — which is why a surprise miss here moves markets immediately rather than after a revision cycle.

Why Traders Watch the Advance Release

Consumer spending is about 70% of U.S. GDP. Retail sales are the most direct monthly read on that spending. A miss in core retail — which strips out autos and gas to isolate underlying demand — tends to reprice growth expectations before the Fed or BEA has said anything. By the time GDP is published, the retail signal is already baked into everything.

When It Diverges From GDP

Retail falling while GDP prints positive usually means something else is propping up the headline — government spending, inventory builds, or net exports. The consumer is already pulling back; it just isn't visible in the aggregate number yet. That gap is exactly what GDPv2 is designed to surface.

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More Indicators

Big Mac Index Men's Underwear Index Cardboard Box Index Temp Staffing Index Lipstick Index Credit Card Delinquency Rate Restaurant Employment Used Car Price Index Recession Search Volume TSA Passenger Volume Electricity Generation Index Recession Probability Score

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